The most-traded SHFE tin contract fell to 315,000 yuan/mt during the night session, while wait-and-see sentiment among downstream and end-user enterprises remained relatively strong. [SMM Tin Morning News]

SMM Tin Morning Brief on December 10, 2025:

Futures: The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2601) fell rapidly during the night session, dropping to 315,000 yuan/mt and maintaining a fluctuating trend, closing at 315,730 yuan/mt, down 0.51% from the previous trading day.

Macro: (1) Data from the Passenger Car Association showed that from December 1 to 7, retail sales in the national passenger vehicle market reached 297,000 units, down 32% YoY and 8% MoM. Cumulative retail sales since the beginning of the year totaled 21.781 million units, up 5% YoY. From December 1 to 7, retail sales in the national new energy passenger vehicle market reached 185,000 units, down 17% YoY and 10% MoM. Cumulative retail sales since the beginning of the year reached 11.657 million units, up 19% YoY. (2) To strengthen its position as a semiconductor powerhouse, South Korea is considering spending 4.5 trillion won (approximately $3.06 billion) to build a chip manufacturing plant, with funding coming from both government and private investments. The Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy stated in a declaration that South Korea is considering establishing a 12-inch, 40-nm chip toll manufacturer supported by both the public and private sectors to assist companies in developing and testing chips. The ministry also noted that, given South Korea's current 99% reliance on imports for defense-related chips, it will seek to achieve domestic production of such chips. The government is also considering amending relevant laws to include provisions prioritizing the procurement of domestic chips for national security infrastructure. (3) On the morning of December 10, the Taiwan Affairs Office held a regular press conference. Spokesperson Chen Binhua responded to questions from reporters. Recently, the U.S. Secretary of Commerce stated that in Taiwan-U.S. tariff negotiations, the U.S. is seeking over $300 billion in investment from Taiwan into the U.S. and assistance in training U.S. semiconductor workers, with the ultimate goal of relocating Taiwan's entire semiconductor supply chain to the U.S. Spokesperson Chen Binhua stated that previously, TSMC was forced to announce an additional investment of $100 billion in the U.S., which has already caused panic within the island's industry and public outrage. If this $300 billion investment materializes, it is bound to have a huge impact on Taiwan's economy, further weakening its economic momentum and autonomy. We are gravely concerned about this. We hope the people of Taiwan and insightful figures from all sectors will unite and take action to resolutely oppose the Lai Ching-te administration's obsequious behavior toward the U.S. and actively safeguard their own interests.

Fundamentals: (1) Supply-side disruptions: Tin ore supply in major production areas such as Yunnan is generally tightening, and most smelters are expected to maintain relatively stable production in December. (2) Demand side: Due to weak demand in the consumer electronics and home appliance markets, orders have significantly decreased. Downstream procurement remains cautious, and high prices are noticeably suppressing actual consumption. Emerging sectors provide limited boost: Although AI computing power upgrades and PV industry installations have driven some tin consumption, their contribution remains small at present, insufficient to fill the gap left by declining consumption in traditional sectors.

Spot market: Tin prices continued to rally yesterday, reaching a high of 324,210 yuan/mt. Although prices pulled back to around 315,000 yuan/mt during the night session, daytime session prices still dampened trading activity among downstream and end-user enterprises. Traders reported fewer inquiries and sluggish transactions.

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